VriendenLoterij Eredivisie 25/26 · 11 Feb 2026

NEC Nijmegen 1–3 FC Utrecht

Picked for matchday: Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 18% · Chances everywhere: 3.8 xG · Standout: Adrian Blake scored 100.0 · Breakout watch: Kodai Sano

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Jan 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 1.8 – 0.9
Actual xG: 2.0 – 1.8
Goals: 1 – 3

Footybot made NEC Nijmegen favourites at 60%.

FC Utrecht won a close one on the chances: 1.8 xG to 2.0.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Darko Nejašmić, 72.2 in 59′.

Well above their usual level: Darko Nejašmić +17.1, Kodai Sano +15.1, Ángel Alarcón +12.6.

Well below it: Sami Ouaissa −15.5, Gonzalo Crettaz −13.9, Bryan Linssen −10.8.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

NEC Nijmegen

7 Feb 2026	W 4–1	v Heracles Almelo Eredivisie
31 Jan 2026	W 3–1	at AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
24 Jan 2026	W 2–1	v PEC Zwolle Eredivisie
17 Jan 2026	W 4–3	at NAC Breda Eredivisie
20 Dec 2025	D 2–2	v AFC Ajax Eredivisie

FC Utrecht

8 Feb 2026	L 0–1	v Feyenoord Eredivisie
1 Feb 2026	D 1–1	at SC Heerenveen Eredivisie
29 Jan 2026	L 2–4	at Celtic Europa League
25 Jan 2026	L 0–1	v Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie
22 Jan 2026	L 0–2	v KRC Genk Europa League

Head to head

2 Nov 2025	FC Utrecht 1–0 NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen

Player	Min	G	xG	Score	vs usual
Darko Nejašmić Midfielder	59	1	0.10	72.2	+17.1
Kodai Sano Midfielder	90	0	0.02	66.2	+15.1
Philippe Sandler Defender	59	0	–	58.4	+10.2
Deveron Fonville Defender	31	0	–	58.2	–
Noé Lebreton Forward	73	0	0.17	55.6	+1.0
Ahmetcan Kaplan Defender	90	0	0.23	55.4	+2.1
Koki Ogawa Forward	17	0	0.48	53.5	–
Danilo Pereira Forward	30	0	0.10	53.1	–
Eli Dasa Defender	90	0	0.08	52.0	+10.3
Tjaronn Chery Forward	90	0	0.25	48.5	−2.2
Youssef El Kachati Forward	31	0	0.04	44.2	–
Bryan Linssen Forward	82	0	0.04	42.5	−10.8
Başar Önal Midfielder	90	0	0.11	41.4	−9.3
Willum Thor Willumsson Midfielder	8	0	–	39.7	–
Gonzalo Crettaz Goalkeeper	90	0	–	37.3	−13.9
Sami Ouaissa Midfielder	60	0	0.38	34.3	−15.5

FC Utrecht

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Adrian Blake Forward	1	0	0	0.39	100.0	–
Oualid Agougil Midfielder	1	0	0	–	100.0	–
Mike Van der Hoorn Defender	8	0	0	–	65.7	–
Vasilis Barkas Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	62.6	+12.6
Gjivai Zechiël Midfielder	90	1	1	0.18	55.2	+9.1
Ángel Alarcón Midfielder	82	1	0	0.81	53.7	+12.6
Yoann Cathline Midfielder	89	1	0	0.28	51.4	+10.8
Nick Viergever Defender	90	0	0	–	49.2	+7.2
Jesper Karlsson Forward	34	0	0	–	46.2	–
Matisse Didden Defender	90	0	0	–	44.5	−3.7
Artem Stepanov Forward	56	0	1	0.01	44.2	–
Souffian El Karouani Defender	90	0	1	0.12	41.9	−8.2
Niklas Vesterlund Defender	90	0	0	–	41.1	+2.2
Alonzo Engwanda Midfielder	89	0	0	–	41.0	−4.4
Dani De Wit Midfielder	90	0	0	–	37.1	−7.3