UEFA Nations League 26/27 · 24 Sep 2026

Netherlands 1–1 Germany

Picked for matchday: Two strong sides · Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 20% · Chances everywhere: 4.6 xG · Standout: Jan Paul van Hecke scored 100.0

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Aug 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 2.2 – 1.5
Actual xG: 3.1 – 1.5
Goals: 1 – 1

Footybot made Netherlands favourites at 53%.

Netherlands deserved more from the draw, creating 3.1 xG to 1.5.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Jan Paul van Hecke, 100.0 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Jan Paul van Hecke +36.4, Nico Schlotterbeck +32.8, Denzel Dumfries +28.4.

Well below it: Nadiem Amiri −17.1.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Netherlands

30 Jun 2026	D 1–1	v Morocco World Cup 2026
25 Jun 2026	W 3–1	at Tunisia World Cup 2026
20 Jun 2026	W 5–1	v Sweden World Cup 2026
14 Jun 2026	D 2–2	v Japan World Cup 2026
17 Nov 2025	W 4–0	v Lithuania World Cup Qualification UEFA

Germany

29 Jun 2026	D 1–1	v Paraguay World Cup 2026
25 Jun 2026	L 1–2	at Ecuador World Cup 2026
20 Jun 2026	W 2–1	v Côte d'Ivoire World Cup 2026
14 Jun 2026	W 7–1	v Curaçao World Cup 2026
17 Nov 2025	W 6–0	v Slovakia World Cup Qualification UEFA

Head to head

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Netherlands

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender	90	0	0	0.21	100.0	+36.4
Joey Veerman Midfielder	33	0	0	–	98.8	–
Ruben van Bommel Forward	12	0	1	0.08	80.6	–
Denzel Dumfries Midfielder	90	0	0	0.33	72.2	+28.4
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder	83	0	0	0.07	67.9	+18.5
Virgil van Dijk Defender	90	0	0	0.39	64.8	+6.5
Mexx Meerdink Forward	55	0	0	1.22	61.0	+15.0
Micky van de Ven Defender	90	0	0	0.03	60.1	+5.9
Cody Gakpo Midfielder	90	1	0	0.46	54.3	+1.2
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder	90	0	0	–	53.0	+3.4
Quinten Timber Midfielder	57	0	0	0.06	52.4	+8.2
Crysencio Summerville Midfielder	83	0	0	0.20	48.7	−6.6
Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	48.2	−4.2
Guus Til Midfielder	12	0	0	0.07	41.8	–
Brian Brobbey Forward	35	0	0	–	34.5	–

Germany

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Nico Schlotterbeck Defender	90	0	0	0.02	89.4	+32.8
Jonathan Tah Defender	90	0	0	–	74.1	+18.2
Felix Nmecha Midfielder	64	1	0	0.38	71.3	+21.9
Marc-André Ter Stegen Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	66.1	+19.1
Karim Adeyemi Forward	80	0	1	0.85	65.4	+15.5
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder	90	0	0	–	61.5	+0.3
Yannick Engelhardt Midfielder	10	0	0	–	59.7	–
Philipp Treu Defender	90	0	0	0.08	55.4	+12.1
Anton Stach Midfielder	26	0	0	–	55.2	–
Chris Führich Midfielder	26	0	0	0.04	54.0	–
Nathaniel Brown Defender	90	0	0	–	52.4	+6.9
Kevin Schade Midfielder	64	0	0	–	49.6	+2.3
Kai Havertz Forward	30	0	0	–	48.4	–
Younes Ebnoutalib Forward	60	0	0	0.13	47.2	−7.9
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder	80	0	0	–	44.9	−17.1
Serge Gnabry Midfielder	10	0	0	–	0.0	–