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São Paulo
Rafael Tolói

Rafael Tolói

Defender · São Paulo · 36 · Italy

332 on the breakout watchlist Compare with others

Season score
50.6
Brasileiro Serie A 2026, 12 matches
Last 5 weeks
51.4
average of weeks with 60+ minutes
Market value
€835k
−€200k (−20%) since 10 Dec 2025 on Transfermarkt
estimate, 22 Oct 2026

Photo: Ago76, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Born
10 Oct 1990
Height
185 cm
Foot
R
Contract until
31 Dec 2026
Wikipedia views
1,377 4 weeks

Wikipedia Wikidata Transfermarkt

Every week

22–28 Jul 2025 to 20–26 Oct 2026

9 of 66 weeks with 60+ minutes, averaging 50.6 (minutes-weighted); 0 of them 70 or better.

no matchunder 60′under 4545–5555–7070+

Every week as a table
WeekMatchesMinutesScoreExpectedUnderlying
13–19 Oct 202614544.549.944.4
6–12 Oct 2026210347.550.248.5
29 Sep – 5 Oct 202616456.249.856.2
15–21 Sep 202619546.050.145.9
8–14 Sep 202619063.449.070.7
21–27 Jul 202612344.449.144.3
21–27 Apr 202619046.249.346.1
14–20 Apr 202619048.949.349.2
7–13 Apr 2026210643.849.643.9
31 Mar – 6 Apr 2026218053.449.253.7
24 Feb – 2 Mar 202619050.848.851.2

Against expectation

How it's expected

Each week's score beside what the player's earlier matches led to expect. Over the last 9 weeks with 60+ minutes: level with expectation (+1.1 a week).

40.045.050.055.060.065.024 Feb7 Apr21 Apr15 Sep6 OctExpected 50.2Score 47.5
332

On the breakout watchlist

Underlying 51.0 over 976 minutes in the last year, up 2.3 over the last 10 weeks. Wikipedia views 1.6× below similar performers. Valued €835k against €1.1M expected. See the list

Market value

Where these come from
Current estimate €835k no change recorded 22 Oct 2026 · BSD, seen when squads refresh
Transfermarkt €800k −€200k (−20%) since 10 Dec 2025 26 May 2026 · valuations up to July 2026
Next summer, if it goes like similar cases €405k–€626k −36% median of 40 similar past cases; players his age −38% Closest cases, what their Transfermarkt value then did in a year: David López at 35 (€1.0M, scoring 50.5) −40%; Jasper Cillessen at 36 (€800k, scoring 51.0) −63%; Ricky van Wolfswinkel at 36 (€450k, scoring 49.5) −56%.
0€5.0M€10M€15M€20M20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026€800k€835k
Every value as a table
DateSourceValue
22 Oct 2026Current estimate (BSD)€835k
26 May 2026Transfermarkt€800k
10 Dec 2025Transfermarkt€1.0M
17 Jun 2025Transfermarkt€1.4M
18 Dec 2024Transfermarkt€1.5M
5 Jun 2024Transfermarkt€2.5M
20 Dec 2023Transfermarkt€4.0M
15 Jun 2023Transfermarkt€6.0M
11 Nov 2022Transfermarkt€8.0M
7 Jun 2022Transfermarkt€8.0M
28 Dec 2021Transfermarkt€13.0M
25 May 2021Transfermarkt€15.0M
29 Dec 2020Transfermarkt€15.0M
25 Aug 2020Transfermarkt€16.0M
8 Apr 2020Transfermarkt€12.0M
3 Mar 2020Transfermarkt€15.0M
12 Dec 2019Transfermarkt€13.0M
6 Jun 2019Transfermarkt€11.0M
20 Dec 2018Transfermarkt€11.0M
7 Jun 2018Transfermarkt€11.0M
29 Dec 2017Transfermarkt€8.0M
8 Jun 2017Transfermarkt€7.0M
2 Jan 2017Transfermarkt€4.8M
15 Jul 2016Transfermarkt€4.0M
4 Jan 2016Transfermarkt€4.5M

Two different estimates, so each is its own line and each change is measured within its own line.

What the score is made of

Brasileiro Serie A 2026: each part per 90 minutes against the average defender in the top five leagues (0), in standard deviations.

  • Shooting +0.82
  • Creating −0.47
  • Progressing −0.40
  • Keeping the ball +0.26
  • Defending +0.19
  • Aerial +0.12
  • Finishing −0.65

Attention

English Wikipedia views per week, the article and its redirects, last 52 weeks.

05001.0K1.5K28 Oct16 Dec3 Feb24 Mar12 May30 Jun18 Aug6 Oct

Plays most like

same position, last 12 months: the shape of their play, not its level
PlayerRecent scoreValue nowLikeness
Harold Moukoudi AEK Athens · 2850.2€6.6M97%Compare
Tyrone Mings Aston Villa · 3348.3€3.2M96%Compare
Félix Torres Internacional · 2948.9€870k95%Compare
Mike Eerdhuijzen KV Mechelen · 2647.3€1.9M94%Compare
Kevin Mac Allister Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 2847.0€12.4M94%Compare
Yerson Mosquera Wolverhampton · 2549.6€10.8M94%Compare

Recent score: the last six months. Cheaper: valued at less than 60% of Rafael Tolói.

Seasons

SeasonCompetitionTeamMatchesMinutesScoreUnderlying
Brasileiro Serie A 2026Brasileirão Série ASão Paulo1287050.651.5
CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026Copa SudamericanaSão Paulo210646.947.1
Serie A 24/25Serie AAtalanta1146452.352.3
UEFA Champions League 24/25Champions LeagueAtalanta421140.340.3

Latest matches

14 since July 2025
DateCompetitionOpponentResultMinGoalsAssistsxGxAScore
18 Oct 2026Brasileirão Série AVasco da GamaW 1–04500–0.0044.5
11 Oct 2026Brasileirão Série AVitóriaW 2–11300––27.0
8 Oct 2026Brasileirão Série Aat CruzeiroL 0–290000.150.0250.4
2 Oct 2026Brasileirão Série ASantosL 1–26400–0.0156.2
20 Sep 2026Brasileirão Série AInternacionalW 1–09500–0.0146.0
12 Sep 2026Brasileirão Série Aat PalmeirasL 0–290000.930.0063.4
23 Jul 2026Brasileirão Série AAthleticoL 1–22300–0.0044.4
26 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série AMirassolW 1–09000–0.0046.2
14 Apr 2026Copa SudamericanaO'HigginsW 2–090000.040.0048.9
11 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série Aat VitóriaL 0–290000.040.0145.2
All 14 matches
DateCompetitionOpponentResultMinGoalsAssistsxGxAScore
18 Oct 2026Brasileirão Série AVasco da GamaW 1–04500–0.0044.5
11 Oct 2026Brasileirão Série AVitóriaW 2–11300––27.0
8 Oct 2026Brasileirão Série Aat CruzeiroL 0–290000.150.0250.4
2 Oct 2026Brasileirão Série ASantosL 1–26400–0.0156.2
20 Sep 2026Brasileirão Série AInternacionalW 1–09500–0.0146.0
12 Sep 2026Brasileirão Série Aat PalmeirasL 0–290000.930.0063.4
23 Jul 2026Brasileirão Série AAthleticoL 1–22300–0.0044.4
26 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série AMirassolW 1–09000–0.0046.2
14 Apr 2026Copa SudamericanaO'HigginsW 2–090000.040.0048.9
11 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série Aat VitóriaL 0–290000.040.0145.2
8 Apr 2026Copa Sudamericanaat Boston RiverW 1–01600–0.0135.4
4 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série ACruzeiroW 4–190000.070.0154.9
1 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série Aat InternacionalD 1–19000–0.0152.0
25 Feb 2026Brasileirão Série Aat CoritibaW 1–090000.050.0150.8