World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026 · 11 Oct 2025

Estonia 1–3 Italy

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Sep 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made Italy favourites at 59%.

No xG was recorded for this match, so only the result can be read.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Sandro Tonali, 100.0 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Sandro Tonali +38.7, Riccardo Calafiori +23.9, Riccardo Orsolini +20.0.

Each side's last five results before this match.

5 Sep 2025	L 0–5	at Italy World Cup Qualification UEFA

8 Sep 2025	W 5–4	at Israel World Cup Qualification UEFA
5 Sep 2025	W 5–0	v Estonia World Cup Qualification UEFA

5 Sep 2025	Italy 5–0 Estonia World Cup Qualification UEFA

Player	Min	xG	Score	vs usual
Rasmus Peetson Midfielder	90	–	62.6	–
Michael Schjønning-Larsen Defender	45	–	59.8	–
Rocco Robert Shein Midfielder	83	–	54.7	+6.7
Joseph Saliste Defender	45	–	54.3	–
Maksim Paskotsi Defender	90	–	49.6	−3.7
Karl Hein Goalkeeper	90	–	48.5	−6.3
Mattias Käit Midfielder	90	–	46.6	–
Alex Matthias Tamm Forward	62	–	42.9	–
Karol Mets Defender	28	–	41.4	–

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Sandro Tonali Midfielder	90	0	0	–	100.0	+38.7
Riccardo Calafiori Defender	90	0	0	–	82.0	+23.9
Riccardo Orsolini Midfielder	62	0	1	–	73.5	+20.0
Bryan Cristante Midfielder	12	0	0	–	60.2	–
Leonardo Spinazzola Defender	28	0	1	–	60.2	–
Federico Dimarco Midfielder	90	0	1	–	60.2	−10.3
Francesco Pio Esposito Forward	75	1	0	–	58.5	–
Moise Kean Forward	15	1	0	–	58.0	–
Nicolò Barella Midfielder	78	0	0	–	57.9	+1.6
Alessandro Bastoni Defender	90	0	0	–	57.6	−0.4
Mateo Retegui Forward	78	1	0	–	51.3	−5.6
Giovanni Di Lorenzo Defender	90	0	0	–	50.1	+0.4
Giacomo Raspadori Forward	62	0	0	–	42.3	−16.5
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	41.6	−8.8
Andrea Cambiaso Midfielder	28	0	0	–	38.2	–
Davide Frattesi Midfielder	12	0	0	–	31.4	–