CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025, Playoff round · 24 Jul 2025

Grêmio 1–1 Alianza Lima

Picked for matchday: Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 21% · Standout: Hernán Barcos scored 95.1

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Jun 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made Grêmio favourites at 63%.

A draw the chances agree with: 0.7 xG to 0.6.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Gustavo Martins, 69.3 in 74′.

Well above their usual level: Wagner Leonardo +10.5.

Each side's last five results before this match.

19 Jul 2025	D 1–1	at Vasco da Gama Brasileirão Série A
17 Jul 2025	L 0–2	at Alianza Lima Copa Sudamericana
13 Jul 2025	L 1–4	at Cruzeiro Brasileirão Série A

17 Jul 2025	W 2–0	v Grêmio Copa Sudamericana

17 Jul 2025	Alianza Lima 2–0 Grêmio Copa Sudamericana

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Gustavo Martins Defender	74	1	0	0.09	69.3	–
Cristian Pavón Midfielder	16	0	0	0.04	63.5	–
Wagner Leonardo Defender	90	0	0	0.07	57.5	+10.5
André Henrique Forward	45	0	0	0.19	53.3	–
Marlon Defender	90	0	1	0.01	53.2	–
Riquelme Freitas Midfielder	90	0	0	0.02	53.1	–
Walter Kannemann Defender	90	0	0	–	49.1	−4.7
Tiago Volpi Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	45.6	−6.7
Dodi Midfielder	90	0	0	–	44.0	–
Alysson Midfielder	82	0	0	0.02	43.3	+2.5
Cristian Olivera Forward	45	0	0	0.04	40.2	–
Martin Braithwaite Forward	90	0	0	0.24	40.1	–
Mathias Villasanti Midfielder	57	0	0	–	39.9	−7.6
Edenilson Midfielder	33	0	0	–	39.4	–
Francis Amuzu Midfielder	8	0	0	0.01	14.5	–

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Hernán Barcos Forward	22	1	0	0.45	95.1	–
Guillermo Viscarra Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	56.9	–
Erick Noriega Midfielder	90	0	0	–	51.2	–
Jesús Castillo Midfielder	21	0	0	0.02	49.6	–
Eryc Castillo Midfielder	89	0	0	–	44.3	–
Fernando Gaibor Midfielder	90	0	1	–	44.0	–
Paolo Guerrero Forward	68	0	0	–	42.8	–
Josué Estrada Defender	1	0	0	–	42.7	–
Kevin Quevedo Midfielder	82	0	0	0.09	41.7	–
Renzo Garcés Defender	90	0	0	–	36.2	–
Jean Pierre Archimbaud Midfielder	8	0	0	–	32.8	–