FA Cup 25/26, Round 3 · 10 Jan 2026

Bristol City 5–1 Watford

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made Bristol City favourites at 48%.

Bristol City won and made the better chances: 2.1 xG to 0.7.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Emil Riis Jacobsen, 67.4 in 83′.

Well above their usual level: Emil Riis Jacobsen +27.2, Robert Atkinson +14.8, Anis Mehmeti +13.2.

Well below it: Nathan Baxter −25.7, Neto Borges −11.6, Joe Lumley −10.8.

Each side's last five results before this match.

4 Jan 2026	L 0–2	v Preston North End Championship
1 Jan 2026	W 5–0	v Portsmouth Championship
29 Dec 2025	L 1–2	at Millwall Championship
26 Dec 2025	W 2–1	at West Bromwich Albion Championship
20 Dec 2025	W 2–0	v Middlesbrough Championship

1 Jan 2026	W 3–0	v Birmingham City Championship
29 Dec 2025	W 1–0	at Norwich City Championship
26 Dec 2025	W 2–1	at Leicester City Championship
20 Dec 2025	W 1–0	v Stoke City Championship
13 Dec 2025	D 2–2	at Wrexham Championship

7 Nov 2025	Watford 1–1 Bristol City Championship

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Emil Riis Jacobsen Forward	83	3	1	0.94	67.4	+27.2
Robert Atkinson Defender	71	1	0	0.33	62.8	+14.8
Anis Mehmeti Forward	58	1	0	0.14	55.9	+13.2
George Earthy Midfielder	32	0	1	–	51.8	–
Rob Dickie Defender	90	0	0	0.37	44.1	−4.8
Jason Knight Midfielder	59	0	0	0.06	42.3	+4.8
Yu Hirakawa Forward	19	0	0	–	42.0	–
Scott Twine Forward	32	0	1	–	41.2	–
Joe Lumley Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	40.6	−10.8
Sam Bell Forward	58	0	0	0.28	40.2	−6.8
Sam Morsy Midfielder	90	0	0	–	39.7	–
Adam Randell Midfielder	31	0	0	–	39.2	–
Sinclair Armstrong Forward	10	0	0	–	32.1	–
Zak Vyner Defender	90	0	0	0.04	29.6	−4.6
George Tanner Defender	90	0	0	–	29.3	−7.6
Neto Borges Defender	90	0	2	–	27.2	−11.6

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Jack Grieves Midfielder	28	1	0	0.23	59.8	–
Kévin Keben Biakolo Defender	90	0	0	–	51.4	+8.5
Moussa Sissoko Midfielder	62	0	0	–	44.7	+6.3
Matthew Pollock Defender	62	0	0	–	44.7	−0.6
Nestory Irankunda Forward	90	0	0	0.31	41.9	−8.4
Nampalys Mendy Midfielder	90	0	0	–	40.7	+0.9
Jeremy Petris Defender	90	0	0	–	40.6	+4.6
Marc Bola Defender	28	0	0	–	39.7	–
Vivaldo Forward	90	0	1	0.11	37.7	−3.7
Imrân Louza Midfielder	62	0	0	–	37.4	−7.1
Kwadwo Baah Forward	28	0	0	–	36.8	–
James Abankwah Defender	90	0	0	–	34.8	−5.4
James Morris Defender	90	0	0	0.03	27.5	–
Nathan Baxter Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	20.4	−25.7