FA Cup 25/26, Round 3 · 10 Jan 2026

Cambridge United 2–3 Birmingham City

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made Cambridge United favourites at 57%.

Birmingham City won although Cambridge United made the better chances (1.3 xG to 0.8): a result the chances didn't back.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Marvin Ducksch, 61.9 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Kai Wagner +20.1, Marvin Ducksch +18.7, Kyogo Furuhashi +17.3.

Well below it: Jake Eastwood −20.8.

Each side's last five results before this match.

4 Jan 2026	W 3–2	v Coventry City Championship
1 Jan 2026	L 0–3	at Watford Championship
29 Dec 2025	D 1–1	v Southampton Championship
26 Dec 2025	D 1–1	v Derby County Championship
20 Dec 2025	L 0–3	at Sheffield United Championship

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Sullay Kaikai Forward	27	2	0	0.36	100.0	–
James Brophy Midfielder	63	0	0	0.21	47.3	–
Mamadou Jobe Defender	90	0	1	–	46.3	–
Shane McLoughlin Midfielder	16	0	0	–	41.0	–
Louis Appéré Forward	90	0	0	–	40.9	–
Zeno Ibsen Rossi Defender	90	0	0	–	38.6	–
Ben Knight Forward	90	0	0	0.44	38.6	–
Shayne Lavery Forward	27	0	0	0.09	38.0	–
Dominic Ball Midfielder	63	0	0	–	36.3	–
George Hoddle Midfielder	90	0	0	–	34.3	–
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu Midfielder	74	0	0	–	34.2	−3.1
Jake Eastwood Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	32.6	−20.8
James Gibbons Defender	74	0	0	–	31.3	–
Liam Bennett Defender	90	0	0	0.04	24.4	–
Ben Purrington Defender	16	0	0	0.15	22.4	–

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Willum Thor Willumsson Midfielder	15	0	0	–	64.8	–
Marvin Ducksch Forward	90	1	0	0.30	61.9	+18.7
Kyogo Furuhashi Forward	76	1	0	0.34	55.8	+17.3
Jack Robinson Defender	77	0	0	–	55.4	+7.2
Christoph Klarer Defender	90	0	0	–	55.3	+5.3
Kai Wagner Defender	90	1	0	0.06	54.3	+20.1
Tomoki Iwata Midfielder	90	0	0	–	51.4	+13.5
Seung Ho Paik Midfielder	90	0	0	–	47.7	+5.7
James Beadle Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	44.5	−4.1
Tommy Doyle Midfielder	90	0	1	0.02	43.2	+1.6
Lewis Koumas Forward	89	0	0	0.03	39.6	+3.6
Kanya Fujimoto Midfielder	14	0	0	–	36.9	–
Phil Neumann Defender	13	0	0	–	35.9	–
Patrick Roberts Midfielder	75	0	0	0.03	35.8	−3.9
Alfons Sampsted Defender	1	0	0	–	0.0	–