UEFA Champions League 25/26, Round of 16 · 17 Mar 2026

Manchester City 1–2 Real Madrid

Picked for matchday: Two strong sides · Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 15% · Chances everywhere: 4.9 xG · Standout: Vinícius Júnior scored 100.0

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Feb 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 2.3 – 1.0
Actual xG: 1.9 – 2.9
Goals: 1 – 2

Footybot made Manchester City favourites at 67%.

Real Madrid won and made the better chances: 2.9 xG to 1.9.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Vinícius Júnior, 100.0 in 90′.

Manchester City

Player	Min	G	xG	Score
Erling Haaland Forward	56	1	1.09	68.5
Jérémy Doku Midfielder	90	0	0.07	68.0
Rodri Midfielder	74	0	0.24	62.0
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender	90	0	0.02	58.0
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder	45	0	0.09	54.9
Marc Guéhi Defender	45	0	0.07	50.8
Nathan Aké Defender	45	0	–	49.2
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper	90	0	–	48.0
Nico González Midfielder	16	0	–	47.8
Rayan Aït-Nouri Defender	90	0	0.04	46.7
Matheus Nunes Defender	57	0	–	45.7
Rayan Cherki Midfielder	90	0	0.23	45.3
Rúben Dias Defender	45	0	–	43.3
Omar Marmoush Forward	34	0	–	41.3
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder	33	0	0.06	40.6
Bernardo Silva Midfielder	20	0	–	15.6

Real Madrid

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score
Vinícius Júnior Forward	90	2	0	2.56	100.0
Dani Carvajal Defender	12	0	0	–	100.0
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder	90	0	1	0.16	79.8
Arda Güler Midfielder	74	0	0	0.03	75.8
Eduardo Camavinga Midfielder	16	0	0	–	71.9
Trent Alexander-Arnold Defender	83	0	0	0.03	71.5
Manuel Ángel Morán Midfielder	16	0	0	–	64.5
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper	45	0	0	–	61.8
Kylian Mbappé Forward	21	0	0	0.06	61.7
Brahim Díaz Midfielder	69	0	0	0.06	60.2
Andriy Lunin Goalkeeper	45	0	0	–	58.4
Dean Huijsen Defender	90	0	0	–	52.5
Federico Valverde Midfielder	90	0	0	0.02	52.5
Thiago Pitarch Midfielder	74	0	0	–	49.0
Antonio Rüdiger Defender	90	0	0	–	44.4
Fran García Defender	90	0	0	–	41.9