Bundesliga 25/26 · 14 Dec 2025

FC Bayern München 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05

Picked for matchday: Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 9% · Chances everywhere: 5.0 xG · Breakout watch: Kacper Potulski

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Nov 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made FC Bayern München favourites at 86%.

FC Bayern München deserved more from the draw, creating 4.4 xG to 0.6.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Kim Min-jae, 66.6 in 73′.

Well above their usual level: William Bøving +18.0, Serge Gnabry +9.8, Jae-sung Lee +8.9.

Well below it: Manuel Neuer −14.1, Michael Olise −12.0, Lennart Karl −11.6.

Each side's last five results before this match.

9 Dec 2025	W 3–1	v Sporting CP Champions League
6 Dec 2025	W 5–0	at VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga
29 Nov 2025	W 3–1	v FC St. Pauli Bundesliga
26 Nov 2025	L 1–3	at Arsenal Champions League
22 Nov 2025	W 6–2	v SC Freiburg Bundesliga

11 Dec 2025	D 1–1	at Lech Poznań Conference League
5 Dec 2025	L 0–1	v Borussia M'gladbach Bundesliga
30 Nov 2025	L 0–4	at SC Freiburg Bundesliga
27 Nov 2025	L 0–1	at Universitatea Craiova Conference League
21 Nov 2025	D 1–1	v TSG Hoffenheim Bundesliga

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Kim Min-jae Defender	73	0	0	–	66.6	+6.7
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder	90	0	0	0.12	63.7	−0.3
Michael Olise Midfielder	90	0	0	0.03	62.4	−12.0
Serge Gnabry Midfielder	90	0	1	0.88	61.2	+9.8
Josip Stanišić Defender	90	0	0	0.05	59.9	+5.0
Hiroki Itō Defender	61	0	0	–	58.9	–
Lennart Karl Midfielder	90	1	0	0.88	55.5	−11.6
Harry Kane Forward	90	1	0	2.18	55.3	+1.9
Nicolas Jackson Forward	17	0	0	0.10	51.0	–
Aleksandar Pavlović Midfielder	29	0	0	–	49.2	–
Leon Goretzka Midfielder	61	0	0	0.10	48.9	−5.7
Tom Bischof Midfielder	61	0	0	0.03	45.6	−7.9
Konrad Laimer Defender	29	0	0	–	41.0	–
Alphonso Davies Defender	29	0	0	–	38.0	–
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	35.8	−14.1

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Nelson Weiper Forward	12	0	0	–	84.5	–
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	63.9	–
Kacper Potulski Defender	90	1	0	0.29	63.1	+7.3
William Bøving Forward	90	0	1	–	60.7	+18.0
Jae-sung Lee Midfielder	90	1	0	0.17	56.2	+8.9
Stefan Bell Defender	90	0	1	–	54.0	−1.3
Arnaud Nordin Forward	28	0	0	0.06	52.6	–
Sota Kawasaki Midfielder	62	0	0	–	45.1	+1.1
Benedict Hollerbach Forward	78	0	0	–	43.5	−1.3
Nikolas Veratschnig Defender	90	0	0	–	43.0	+5.9
Lennard Maloney Midfielder	90	0	0	0.08	42.7	−0.9
Danny da Costa Defender	90	0	0	–	42.2	−5.3
Kaishu Sano Midfielder	90	0	0	–	40.2	−8.1