FOOTYBOT
Matchday

Championship 25/26 · 21 Feb 2026

Watford 2–0 Derby County

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Jan 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG
1.4 – 0.7
Actual xG
1.3 – 0.7
Goals
2 – 0

Footybot made Watford favourites at 53%.

Watford won and made the better chances: 1.3 xG to 0.7.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Matt Clarke, 57.3 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Matt Clarke +21.7, Joe Ward +11.8, Jeremy Ngakia +10.8.

Well below it: Ben Brereton Díaz −13.6, Saba Goglichidze −8.4, Edo Kayembe −8.1.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Watford

14 Feb 2026D 2–2at Preston North End Championship
7 Feb 2026L 0–1at Southampton Championship
3 Feb 2026D 0–0at Hull City Championship
31 Jan 2026L 0–2v Swansea City Championship
24 Jan 2026D 1–1at Blackburn Rovers Championship

Derby County

14 Feb 2026W 2–0v Swansea City Championship
7 Feb 2026L 1–2v Ipswich Town Championship
30 Jan 2026W 5–0at Bristol City Championship
23 Jan 2026D 1–1v West Bromwich Albion Championship
20 Jan 2026W 2–1at Charlton Athletic Championship

Head to head

22 Nov 2025Derby County 2–3 Watford Championship

Watford

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Mamadou Doumbia Forward22100.3073.2–
Egil Selvik Goalkeeper9000–53.6+2.6
Giorgi Chakvetadze Midfielder67000.0645.1+9.9
Luca Kjerrumgaard Forward68100.0844.9+8.2
Nestory Irankunda Forward68000.3038.5−1.8
Nampalys Mendy Midfielder90000.0338.5+3.4
Jeremy Ngakia Defender90000.0337.9+10.8
Othmane Maamma Midfielder2300–37.9–
Saba Goglichidze Defender8600–35.9−8.4
Edo Kayembe Midfielder90000.4035.7−8.1
Kwadwo Baah Forward1700–34.9–
Matthew Pollock Defender1100–32.3–
Stephen Mfuni Defender9000–31.6−6.7
Imrân Louza Midfielder90000.1130.9−7.7
Marc Bola Defender1201–30.3–
James Abankwah Defender9000–29.2−7.4

Derby County

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Matt Clarke Defender9000–57.3+21.7
Josh Vickers Goalkeeper9000–54.9–
David Ozoh Midfielder6200–50.1+10.1
Joe Ward Midfielder90000.0247.2+11.8
Bobby Clark Midfielder2800–44.5–
Dion Sanderson Defender9000–43.6+1.2
Carlton Morris Forward28000.5640.9–
Lewis Travis Midfielder8900–38.2+2.1
Rhian Brewster Forward6200–37.7−4.1
Callum Elder Midfielder6200–36.3+3.4
Patrick Agyemang Forward90000.0236.1−4.5
Derry Murkin Defender2800–36.0–
Oscar Fraulo Midfielder1200–35.0–
Sammie Szmodics Midfielder90000.0634.5−4.3
Ben Brereton Díaz Midfielder7800–25.6−13.6
Cruz Allen Midfielder100–0.0–