Serie A 25/26 · 24 May 2026

AC Milan 1–2 Cagliari

Picked for matchday: Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 10% · Chances everywhere: 4.7 xG · Standout: Marco Palestra scored 100.0 · Breakout watch: Davide Bartesaghi

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Apr 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 2.1 – 0.6
Actual xG: 1.7 – 2.9
Goals: 1 – 2

Footybot made AC Milan favourites at 72%.

Cagliari won and made the better chances: 2.9 xG to 1.7.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Mike Maignan, 64.9 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Mike Maignan +15.3, Juan Rodríguez +14.7, Gennaro Borrelli +10.8.

Well below it: Youssouf Fofana −10.5, Fikayo Tomori −9.9, Christopher Nkunku −9.4.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

AC Milan

17 May 2026	W 2–1	at Genoa Serie A
10 May 2026	L 2–3	v Atalanta Serie A
3 May 2026	L 0–2	at Sassuolo Serie A
26 Apr 2026	D 0–0	v Juventus Serie A
19 Apr 2026	W 1–0	at Hellas Verona Serie A

Cagliari

17 May 2026	W 2–1	v Torino Serie A
9 May 2026	L 0–2	v Udinese Serie A
3 May 2026	D 0–0	at Bologna Serie A
27 Apr 2026	W 3–2	v Atalanta Serie A
17 Apr 2026	L 0–3	at Inter Serie A

Head to head

2 Jan 2026	Cagliari 0–1 AC Milan Serie A

AC Milan

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Rafael Leão Forward	22	0	0	–	90.7	–
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	64.9	+15.3
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder	90	0	0	0.48	57.1	+9.7
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder	90	1	0	0.41	52.3	+3.1
Davide Bartesaghi Midfielder	90	0	0	0.05	51.0	+0.7
Christian Pulišić Forward	45	0	0	0.18	50.2	−0.1
Christopher Nkunku Forward	61	0	0	0.14	49.7	−9.4
Matteo Gabbia Defender	90	0	0	–	48.4	+3.0
Strahinja Pavlović Defender	90	0	0	0.06	44.7	−8.2
Ardon Jashari Midfielder	62	0	0	–	44.3	−2.9
Santiago Giménez Forward	45	0	1	0.29	44.2	+0.9
Zachary Athekame Defender	29	0	0	0.03	42.6	–
Niclas Füllkrug Forward	29	0	0	–	41.4	–
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder	68	0	0	0.06	36.0	−10.5
Luka Modrić Midfielder	28	0	0	0.03	34.4	–
Fikayo Tomori Defender	61	0	0	–	32.8	−9.9

Cagliari

Player	Min	G	xG	Score	vs usual
Marco Palestra Midfielder	27	0	0.11	100.0	–
Paul Mendy Forward	16	0	0.27	73.0	–
Alberto Dossena Defender	28	0	–	61.6	–
Juan Rodríguez Defender	62	1	0.52	59.0	+14.7
Gennaro Borrelli Forward	74	1	0.62	58.9	+10.8
Adam Obert Defender	90	0	–	55.8	+8.8
Gianluca Gaetano Midfielder	90	0	0.13	54.5	+8.7
Sebastiano Esposito Forward	89	0	0.34	54.4	+3.5
Yerry Mina Defender	90	0	0.06	51.8	+4.4
Elia Caprile Goalkeeper	90	0	–	50.6	+4.4
Ibrahim Sulemana Midfielder	16	0	0.11	48.1	–
Michel Adopo Midfielder	90	0	0.30	43.4	+0.1
Gabriele Zappa Defender	90	0	0.23	42.4	−0.1
Zé Pedro Defender	63	0	0.11	42.3	−0.3
Alessandro Deiola Midfielder	74	0	0.13	42.1	+1.0
Mattia Felici Forward	1	0	–	38.1	–