Iceland 1–1 Estonia
Expected and what happened
- Expected xG
- 2.6 – 1.0
- Actual xG
- 1.2 – 0.2
- Goals
- 1 – 1
Footybot made Iceland favourites at 73%.
Iceland deserved more from the draw, creating 1.2 xG to 0.2.
Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson, 70.4 in 90′.
Well above their usual level: Hakon Arnar Haraldsson +19.9, Stefán Teitur Þórðarson +15.5, Maksim Paskotsi +14.8.
Well below it: Mattias Käit −13.3.
Going in
Each side's last five results before this match.
Iceland
| 16 Nov 2025 | L 0–2 | at Ukraine |
| 13 Nov 2025 | W 2–0 | at Azerbaijan |
| 13 Oct 2025 | D 2–2 | v France |
| 10 Oct 2025 | L 3–5 | v Ukraine |
| 9 Sep 2025 | L 1–2 | at France |
Estonia
| 13 Nov 2025 | L 1–4 | at Norway |
| 14 Oct 2025 | D 1–1 | v Moldova |
| 11 Oct 2025 | L 1–3 | v Italy |
| 5 Sep 2025 | L 0–5 | at Italy |
Head to head
No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.
Iceland
| Player | Min | Score | vs usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arnór Sigurðsson | 15 | 83.8 | – |
| Gylfi Sigurðsson | 15 | 78.5 | – |
| Kristall Máni Ingason | 10 | 75.6 | – |
| Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson | 90 | 70.4 | – |
| Hakon Arnar Haraldsson | 90 | 68.3 | +19.9 |
| Daníel Grétarsson | 90 | 62.3 | +5.5 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 75 | 60.1 | +10.8 |
| Stefán Teitur Þórðarson | 90 | 58.8 | +15.5 |
| Andri Guðjohnsen | 85 | 57.4 | +13.8 |
| Orri Óskarsson | 90 | 47.5 | −1.5 |
| Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson | 75 | 46.0 | −1.2 |
| Albert Guðmundsson | 30 | 40.7 | – |
| Logi Tomasson | 11 | 36.8 | – |
| Mikael Ellertsson | 84 | 34.9 | −2.6 |
Estonia
| Player | Min | Score | vs usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maksim Paskotsi | 90 | 62.1 | +14.8 |
| Rasmus Peetson | 90 | 56.3 | – |
| Karl Hein | 90 | 53.8 | +5.2 |
| Alex Matthias Tamm | 12 | 53.6 | – |
| Karol Mets | 90 | 51.7 | +7.9 |
| Patrik Kristal | 29 | 46.8 | – |
| Mihkel Ainsalu | 61 | 42.8 | – |
| Michael Schjønning-Larsen | 90 | 38.6 | +5.7 |
| Mattias Käit | 86 | 34.5 | −13.3 |