FOOTYBOT
Matchday

UEFA Nations League 26/27 · 3 Oct 2026

Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Sep 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG
1.7 – 0.7
Actual xG
1.1 – 0.4
Goals
1 – 0

Footybot made Estonia favourites at 60%.

Estonia won and made the better chances: 1.1 xG to 0.4.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Florian Bohnert, 74.7 in 83′.

Well above their usual level: Vincent Thill +25.9, Florian Bohnert +23.9, Anthony Moris +22.1.

Well below it: Rasmus Peetson −12.4, Aiman Dardari −12.1.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Estonia

29 Sep 2026D 0–0at Bulgaria UEFA Nations League
26 Sep 2026D 1–1at Iceland UEFA Nations League
13 Nov 2025L 1–4at Norway World Cup Qualification UEFA
14 Oct 2025D 1–1v Moldova World Cup Qualification UEFA
11 Oct 2025L 1–3v Italy World Cup Qualification UEFA

Luxembourg

29 Sep 2026L 0–3v Iceland UEFA Nations League
26 Sep 2026W 2–1at Bulgaria UEFA Nations League
17 Nov 2025L 0–1at Northern Ireland World Cup Qualification UEFA
14 Nov 2025L 0–2v Germany World Cup Qualification UEFA
13 Oct 2025L 0–2at Slovakia World Cup Qualification UEFA

Head to head

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Estonia

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Maksim Paskotsi Defender90000.1247.9−0.5
Rasmus Peetson Midfielder90100.7147.4−12.4
Karol Mets Defender9000–46.7+1.8
Mattias Käit Midfielder80000.0845.1−0.1
Michael Schjønning-Larsen Defender9000–42.4+8.0
Patrik Kristal Midfielder90000.1840.5+4.1
Mihkel Ainsalu Midfielder1000–39.3–
Mattias Männilaan Forward6600–37.8–

Luxembourg

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Florian Bohnert Defender8300–74.7+23.9
Anthony Moris Goalkeeper9000–68.4+22.1
Vincent Thill Midfielder73000.0568.1+25.9
Sebastien Thill Midfielder28000.0364.1–
Enes Mahmutović Defender8300–62.3+14.2
Vahid Selimović Defender9000–61.4–
Omar Natami Midfielder90000.2455.7–
Enzo dos Santos Midfielder6200–50.6–
Eldin Džogović Defender1100–46.1–
Aiman Dardari Midfielder62000.0342.9−12.1