Matchday

UEFA Nations League 26/27 · 28 Sep 2026

Türkiye 1–4 Italy

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Aug 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG
1.8 – 1.4
Actual xG
1.9 – 2.5
Goals
1 – 4

Footybot made Türkiye favourites at 46%.

Italy won and made the better chances: 2.5 xG to 1.9.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Davide Frattesi, 73.7 in 82′.

Well above their usual level: Davide Frattesi +28.0, Giacomo Raspadori +22.2, Francesco Pio Esposito +19.5.

Well below it: Ozan Kabak −18.8, Can Uzun −18.2, Arda Güler −15.6.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Türkiye

25 Sep 2026L 0–1v France UEFA Nations League
26 Jun 2026W 3–2v USA World Cup 2026
20 Jun 2026L 0–1v Paraguay World Cup 2026
14 Jun 2026L 0–2at Australia World Cup 2026
31 Mar 2026W 1–0at Kosovo World Cup Qualification UEFA

Italy

25 Sep 2026L 0–2v Belgium UEFA Nations League
31 Mar 2026D 1–1at Bosnia & Herzegovina World Cup Qualification UEFA
26 Mar 2026W 2–0v Northern Ireland World Cup Qualification UEFA
16 Nov 2025L 1–4v Norway World Cup Qualification UEFA
13 Nov 2025W 2–0at Moldova World Cup Qualification UEFA

Head to head

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Türkiye

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Demir Ege Tıknaz Midfielder1400–100.0–
İsmail Yüksek Midfielder45000.0470.9+17.8
Abdülkerim Bardakcı Defender4500–56.5+9.0
Arda Güler Midfielder90000.0854.9−15.6
Eren Elmalı Defender90000.2452.8+8.7
Oğuz Aydın Midfielder90010.0451.7+1.1
Barış Alper Yılmaz Midfielder80100.9050.3+9.7
Merih Demiral Defender4500–48.9+4.6
Kerem Aktürkoğlu Forward45000.4848.4+0.1
Salih Özcan Midfielder7600–45.9−0.7
Ozan Kabak Defender9000–44.6−18.8
Orkun Kökçü Midfielder4500–41.5−8.1
Deniz Gül Forward1000–39.3–
Zeki Çelik Defender9000–34.9−9.6
Can Uzun Midfielder45000.0934.6−18.2
Altay Bayındır Goalkeeper9000–34.4−10.5

Italy

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Davide Frattesi Midfielder82100.7873.7+28.0
Giacomo Raspadori Forward45000.1470.5+22.2
Francesco Pio Esposito Forward75110.3870.3+19.5
Matteo Ruggeri Defender9000–68.4+16.3
Giorgio Scalvini Defender9000–66.5+15.4
Michael Kayode Defender90100.8365.6+11.3
Alessandro Romano Midfielder1400–59.9–
Alessandro Bastoni Defender90100.0654.5−0.7
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper9000–53.8+0.1
Sandro Tonali Midfielder90000.0452.1−2.2
Giovanni Di Lorenzo Defender800–50.6–
Sebastiano Esposito Forward63000.1850.3−4.3
Nicolò Cambiaghi Forward45000.0649.8+0.6
Nicolò Fagioli Midfielder7600–49.5+4.9
Issa Doumbia Midfielder2700–43.4–
Gianluca Scamacca Forward1500–35.5–