Bundesliga 25/26 · 10 Jan 2026

1. FC Union Berlin 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05

Picked for matchday: Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 24% · Chances everywhere: 4.8 xG · Standout: Marin Ljubičić scored 100.0 · Breakout watch: Leopold Querfeld

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 1.7 – 1.0
Actual xG: 3.7 – 1.1
Goals: 2 – 2

Footybot made 1. FC Union Berlin favourites at 54%.

1. FC Union Berlin deserved more from the draw, creating 3.7 xG to 1.1.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Derrick Köhn, 65.6 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Derrick Köhn +22.6, Jae-sung Lee +13.4, Danny da Costa +13.3.

Well below it: Daniel Batz −18.5, Oliver Burke −12.0, Aljoscha Kemlein −8.6.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

1. FC Union Berlin

20 Dec 2025	W 1–0	at 1. FC Köln Bundesliga
12 Dec 2025	W 3–1	v RB Leipzig Bundesliga
6 Dec 2025	L 1–3	at VfL Wolfsburg Bundesliga
29 Nov 2025	L 1–2	v 1. FC Heidenheim Bundesliga
23 Nov 2025	W 1–0	at FC St. Pauli Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05

21 Dec 2025	D 0–0	v FC St. Pauli Bundesliga
18 Dec 2025	W 2–0	v Samsunspor Conference League
14 Dec 2025	D 2–2	at FC Bayern München Bundesliga
11 Dec 2025	D 1–1	at Lech Poznań Conference League
5 Dec 2025	L 0–1	v Borussia M'gladbach Bundesliga

Head to head

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

1. FC Union Berlin

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Marin Ljubičić Forward	12	1	0	0.98	100.0	–
Woo-Yeong Jeong Forward	20	1	0	0.35	93.5	–
Derrick Köhn Midfielder	90	0	1	0.03	65.6	+22.6
Danilho Doekhi Defender	90	0	0	0.20	54.8	−2.4
Leopold Querfeld Defender	90	0	0	–	49.4	−5.9
Janik Haberer Midfielder	70	0	0	–	49.1	+0.1
Frederik Rønnow Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	46.3	−0.3
Diogo Leite Defender	78	0	0	–	41.1	−4.4
Andrej Ilić Forward	90	0	0	0.79	39.7	−7.3
Christopher Trimmel Midfielder	20	0	0	–	39.4	–
Rani Khedira Midfielder	90	0	0	–	38.8	−5.1
Livan Burcu Forward	65	0	0	0.44	38.6	–
András Schäfer Midfielder	25	0	0	0.04	36.4	–
Oliver Burke Forward	70	0	0	0.77	36.3	−12.0
Aljoscha Kemlein Midfielder	65	0	0	0.05	33.9	−8.6
Ilyas Ansah Forward	25	0	0	0.04	24.0	–

1. FSV Mainz 05

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Stefan Bell Defender	90	0	0	–	64.7	+9.6
Jae-sung Lee Midfielder	90	0	1	–	60.1	+13.4
Benedict Hollerbach Forward	78	1	0	0.66	57.4	+13.1
Danny da Costa Defender	90	0	0	–	56.8	+13.3
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder	78	1	0	0.19	56.3	+4.7
Kaishu Sano Midfielder	90	0	0	–	52.5	+5.5
Nikolas Veratschnig Defender	90	0	1	–	46.1	+7.6
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	43.9	−18.5
Silvan Widmer Midfielder	90	0	0	0.09	43.3	−0.5
Lennard Maloney Midfielder	9	0	0	–	41.6	–
Phillip Tietz Forward	85	0	0	0.15	40.9	–
Dominik Kohr Defender	90	0	0	–	38.4	−7.4
Armindo Sieb Forward	12	0	0	–	34.5	–
Paul Nebel Midfielder	12	0	0	–	33.4	–