FA Cup 25/26, Round 3 · 9 Jan 2026

Wrexham 3–3 Nottingham Forest

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made Nottingham Forest favourites at 61%.

Nottingham Forest deserved more from the draw, creating 6.9 xG to 5.8.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Josh Windass, 69.0 in 51′.

Well above their usual level: Josh Windass +27.8, Callum Doyle +17.1, Callum Hudson Odoi +16.3.

Well below it: Morato −18.7, Dan Ndoye −17.6, Neco Williams −15.4.

Each side's last five results before this match.

4 Jan 2026	W 2–1	at Derby County Championship
1 Jan 2026	W 2–0	at Blackburn Rovers Championship
29 Dec 2025	W 2–1	v Preston North End Championship
26 Dec 2025	W 5–3	v Sheffield United Championship
19 Dec 2025	L 1–2	at Swansea City Championship

6 Jan 2026	W 2–1	at West Ham United Premier League
3 Jan 2026	L 1–3	at Aston Villa Premier League
30 Dec 2025	L 0–2	v Everton Premier League
27 Dec 2025	L 1–2	v Manchester City Premier League
22 Dec 2025	L 0–1	at Fulham Premier League

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
James McClean Midfielder	32	0	0	0.79	76.0	–
Ryan Barnett Midfielder	30	0	0	–	75.7	–
Josh Windass Forward	51	0	0	1.08	69.0	+27.8
Oliver Rathbone Forward	69	1	0	0.17	65.9	–
Jay Rodriguez Forward	20	0	0	0.76	57.1	–
Nathan Broadhead Forward	69	0	1	0.13	54.9	+10.4
George Dobson Midfielder	120	0	2	0.03	54.8	+15.9
Callum Doyle Defender	120	0	0	0.76	54.6	+17.1
Arthur Okonkwo Goalkeeper	120	0	0	–	53.9	+1.3
Ben Sheaf Midfielder	88	0	0	0.23	51.2	+9.1
Sam Smith Forward	100	0	0	0.48	49.6	+6.0
Liberato Cacace Midfielder	60	1	0	0.05	49.1	+13.9
Dan Scarr Defender	120	0	0	0.10	47.4	+1.7
George Thomason Midfielder	60	0	0	0.76	47.1	+5.1
Lewis O'Brien Midfielder	51	0	0	–	40.4	+0.4
Ryan Longman Midfielder	90	0	0	0.13	40.2	+0.6
Dominic Hyam Defender	120	1	0	0.37	39.1	−1.6

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Callum Hudson Odoi Midfielder	51	2	0	1.13	68.4	+16.3
Dilane Bakwa Midfielder	45	0	0	–	51.8	+1.8
Douglas Luiz Midfielder	88	0	0	0.14	51.0	−2.9
Taiwo Awoniyi Forward	32	0	0	0.28	50.6	–
Igor Jesus Forward	120	1	0	1.71	49.5	+3.6
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder	75	0	0	0.21	44.7	−6.5
Jair Defender	120	0	0	0.09	44.6	–
Matz Sels Goalkeeper	120	0	0	–	42.2	−8.4
Morgan Gibbs-White Midfielder	75	0	0	0.84	40.5	−8.1
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder	120	0	0	0.95	40.4	−15.3
Murillo Defender	23	0	0	0.07	40.0	–
Neco Williams Defender	75	0	0	1.05	38.3	−15.4
Oleksandr Zinchenko Defender	45	0	0	–	36.6	−12.2
Nicolò Savona Defender	97	0	2	0.01	36.4	−6.9
James McAtee Midfielder	45	0	0	–	36.1	−6.6
Morato Defender	120	0	0	0.20	31.6	−18.7
Dan Ndoye Midfielder	69	0	0	0.19	26.4	−17.6