Premier League 25/26 · 3 Jan 2026

Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made Aston Villa favourites at 54%.

Aston Villa won and made the better chances: 1.6 xG to 0.9.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Boubacar Kamara, 67.5 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Boubacar Kamara +17.0, Victor Lindelöf +10.9, Murillo +9.1.

Well below it: John Victor −17.5, Ola Aina −14.5, Omari Hutchinson −13.7.

Each side's last five results before this match.

30 Dec 2025	L 1–4	at Arsenal Premier League
27 Dec 2025	W 2–1	at Chelsea Premier League
21 Dec 2025	W 2–1	v Manchester United Premier League
14 Dec 2025	W 3–2	at West Ham United Premier League
11 Dec 2025	W 2–1	at Basel Europa League

30 Dec 2025	L 0–2	v Everton Premier League
27 Dec 2025	L 1–2	v Manchester City Premier League
22 Dec 2025	L 0–1	at Fulham Premier League
14 Dec 2025	W 3–0	v Tottenham Hotspur Premier League
11 Dec 2025	W 2–1	at FC Utrecht Europa League

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Boubacar Kamara Midfielder	90	0	0	–	67.5	+17.0
Youri Tielemans Midfielder	90	0	1	–	58.0	+0.6
John McGinn Midfielder	83	2	0	0.45	57.0	+2.7
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	56.8	+3.8
Victor Lindelöf Defender	90	0	0	–	56.1	+10.9
Ollie Watkins Forward	83	1	0	0.64	55.4	−6.2
Matty Cash Defender	89	0	1	–	54.4	+5.7
Ian Maatsen Defender	69	0	0	0.11	52.4	−3.2
Ezri Konsa Defender	90	0	0	–	45.9	−3.0
Lucas Digne Defender	21	0	0	–	44.6	–
Morgan Rogers Midfielder	90	0	1	0.19	42.0	−13.5
Emiliano Buendía Midfielder	69	0	0	0.19	41.6	−13.4
Donyell Malen Forward	15	0	0	–	39.0	–
Lamare Bogarde Midfielder	15	0	0	–	37.8	–
Jadon Sancho Midfielder	21	0	0	0.02	34.0	–
Andrés García Defender	8	0	0	–	27.2	–

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Murillo Defender	90	0	0	–	61.5	+9.1
Morgan Gibbs-White Midfielder	90	1	0	0.49	56.7	+8.3
Elliot Anderson Midfielder	90	0	0	–	48.0	−12.9
Arnaud Kalimuendo Forward	14	0	0	0.09	46.7	–
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder	90	0	0	0.03	46.6	−13.7
Dilane Bakwa Midfielder	69	0	1	0.22	46.1	−11.4
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder	83	0	0	0.01	45.4	−5.7
Neco Williams Defender	90	0	0	0.01	44.4	−12.3
Ola Aina Defender	69	0	0	0.01	43.7	−14.5
Douglas Luiz Midfielder	14	0	0	–	42.3	–
Nikola Milenković Defender	90	0	0	–	40.5	−11.6
Igor Jesus Forward	83	0	0	0.02	40.2	−7.2
Nicolò Savona Defender	21	0	0	–	36.5	–
James McAtee Midfielder	21	0	0	–	34.5	–
John Victor Goalkeeper	78	0	0	–	30.0	−17.5
Matz Sels Goalkeeper	12	0	0	–	0.0	–