UEFA Champions League 25/26 · 10 Dec 2025

Real Madrid 1–2 Manchester City

Picked for matchday: Two strong sides · Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 23% · Chances everywhere: 4.2 xG · Standout: Sávio scored 100.0

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Nov 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 2.1 – 1.3
Actual xG: 1.5 – 2.7
Goals: 1 – 2

Footybot made Real Madrid favourites at 57%.

Manchester City won and made the better chances: 2.7 xG to 1.5.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Nico O'Reilly, 79.9 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Rodrygo +23.8, Nico O'Reilly +22.4, Erling Haaland +15.2.

Well below it: Phil Foden −31.9, Jérémy Doku −16.2, Aurélien Tchouaméni −13.8.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Real Madrid

7 Dec 2025	L 0–2	v Celta Vigo LaLiga
3 Dec 2025	W 3–0	at Athletic Club LaLiga
30 Nov 2025	D 1–1	at Girona FC LaLiga
26 Nov 2025	W 4–3	at Olympiacos FC Champions League
23 Nov 2025	D 2–2	at Elche LaLiga

Manchester City

6 Dec 2025	W 3–0	v Sunderland Premier League
2 Dec 2025	W 5–4	at Fulham Premier League
29 Nov 2025	W 3–2	v Leeds United Premier League
25 Nov 2025	L 0–2	v Bayer 04 Leverkusen Champions League
22 Nov 2025	L 1–2	at Newcastle United Premier League

Head to head

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Real Madrid

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Arda Güler Midfielder	32	0	0	0.04	79.6	–
Rodrygo Forward	90	1	0	0.10	79.6	+23.8
Jude Bellingham Midfielder	90	0	1	0.44	61.0	−2.0
Álvaro Carreras Defender	90	0	0	0.01	60.0	+3.7
Endrick Forward	11	0	0	0.20	59.9	–
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	54.0	−1.0
Antonio Rüdiger Defender	90	0	0	–	51.5	+0.6
Federico Valverde Midfielder	90	0	0	0.08	48.7	−3.2
Vinícius Júnior Forward	90	0	0	0.60	47.6	−7.2
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder	90	0	0	0.03	47.1	−13.8
Dani Ceballos Midfielder	67	0	0	–	45.8	−8.3
Brahim Díaz Midfielder	23	0	0	–	45.8	–
Raúl Asencio Defender	79	0	0	–	44.4	−4.8
Gonzalo García Forward	58	0	0	–	41.3	–

Manchester City

Player	Min	G	xG	Score	vs usual
Sávio Midfielder	19	0	0.06	100.0	–
Nico O'Reilly Defender	90	1	0.90	79.9	+22.4
Erling Haaland Forward	70	1	1.47	72.8	+15.2
Matheus Nunes Defender	90	0	–	69.4	+11.8
Rayan Cherki Midfielder	71	0	0.09	69.1	+1.5
Joško Gvardiol Defender	90	0	0.04	65.0	+11.2
Nathan Aké Defender	8	0	–	60.9	–
Nico González Midfielder	90	0	–	58.4	+4.1
Jérémy Doku Midfielder	87	0	0.07	57.6	−16.2
Rúben Dias Defender	90	0	–	51.3	−9.9
Omar Marmoush Forward	20	0	–	48.5	–
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder	20	0	0.03	47.6	–
Bernardo Silva Midfielder	90	0	–	46.7	−4.5
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper	90	0	–	40.2	−4.7
Phil Foden Midfielder	70	0	–	40.0	−31.9