UEFA Nations League 26/27 · 2 Oct 2026

France 1–1 Italy

Picked for matchday: Two strong sides · Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 14% · Standout: Daniel Maldini scored 100.0

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Sep 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made France favourites at 77%.

A draw the chances agree with: 1.2 xG to 1.5.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Michael Olise, 81.1 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Michael Kayode +26.3, Riccardo Calafiori +19.0, Nicolò Fagioli +14.1.

Well below it: Dayot Upamecano −8.9.

Each side's last five results before this match.

28 Sep 2026	W 1–0	at Belgium UEFA Nations League
25 Sep 2026	W 1–0	at Türkiye UEFA Nations League
18 Jul 2026	L 4–6	v England World Cup 2026
14 Jul 2026	L 0–2	v Spain World Cup 2026
9 Jul 2026	W 2–0	v Morocco World Cup 2026

28 Sep 2026	W 4–1	at Türkiye UEFA Nations League
25 Sep 2026	L 0–2	v Belgium UEFA Nations League
31 Mar 2026	D 1–1	at Bosnia & Herzegovina World Cup Qualification UEFA
26 Mar 2026	W 2–0	v Northern Ireland World Cup Qualification UEFA
16 Nov 2025	L 1–4	v Norway World Cup Qualification UEFA

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Eduardo Camavinga Midfielder	14	0	0	0.07	83.6	–
Michael Olise Midfielder	90	1	0	0.13	81.1	+4.0
Bradley Barcola Forward	14	0	0	–	73.9	–
Rayan Cherki Midfielder	76	0	1	0.17	68.0	+2.2
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder	90	0	0	0.05	65.3	+12.6
Dayot Upamecano Defender	85	0	0	–	63.5	−8.9
Jérémy Jacquet Defender	90	0	0	–	62.6	+4.3
Désiré Doué Forward	76	0	0	0.12	60.7	−4.7
Lucas Da Cunha Midfielder	87	0	0	–	59.4	+1.2
Ousmane Dembélé Forward	90	0	0	0.64	57.7	−7.8
Adrien Truffert Defender	90	0	0	0.06	56.1	+0.8
Pierre Kalulu Defender	90	0	0	–	55.6	+12.2
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	48.9	+2.2
Maxence Lacroix Defender	8	0	0	–	36.5	–

Player	Min	G	xG	Score	vs usual
Daniel Maldini Forward	10	0	–	100.0	–
Gianluca Scamacca Forward	1	0	–	92.3	–
Antonio Vergara Forward	28	0	–	87.6	–
Michael Kayode Defender	90	0	–	81.0	+26.3
Riccardo Calafiori Defender	90	0	0.03	69.9	+19.0
Nicolò Barella Midfielder	28	0	0.18	68.4	–
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper	90	0	–	64.7	+11.0
Davide Frattesi Midfielder	80	0	0.46	61.9	+12.6
Nicolò Fagioli Midfielder	89	0	–	58.6	+14.1
Alessandro Bastoni Defender	90	1	0.35	58.2	+2.1
Sebastiano Esposito Forward	80	0	0.03	52.6	−0.9
Giorgio Scalvini Defender	90	0	0.02	52.1	−0.3
Moise Kean Forward	90	0	0.38	50.3	+6.7
Issa Doumbia Midfielder	10	0	–	49.2	–
Sandro Tonali Midfielder	62	0	0.02	47.8	−5.8
Francesco Pio Esposito Forward	62	0	–	45.4	−7.8