Serie A 25/26 · 11 Jan 2026

Fiorentina 1–1 AC Milan

Picked for matchday: Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 25% · Standout: Christopher Nkunku scored 100.0 · Breakout watch: Pietro Comuzzo

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 1.6 – 1.2
Actual xG: 1.5 – 1.8
Goals: 1 – 1

Footybot made Fiorentina favourites at 46%.

A draw the chances agree with: 1.5 xG to 1.8.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Dodô, 70.7 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Dodô +26.5, Samuele Ricci +11.5, Mike Maignan +11.3.

Well below it: Koni De Winter −13.5, Matteo Gabbia −11.3, Fabiano Parisi −10.7.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Fiorentina

7 Jan 2026	D 2–2	at Lazio Serie A
4 Jan 2026	W 1–0	v Cremonese Serie A
27 Dec 2025	L 0–1	at Parma Serie A
21 Dec 2025	W 5–1	v Udinese Serie A
18 Dec 2025	L 0–1	at FC Lausanne-Sport Conference League

AC Milan

8 Jan 2026	D 1–1	v Genoa Serie A
2 Jan 2026	W 1–0	at Cagliari Serie A
28 Dec 2025	W 3–0	v Hellas Verona Serie A
14 Dec 2025	D 2–2	v Sassuolo Serie A
8 Dec 2025	W 3–2	at Torino Serie A

Head to head

19 Oct 2025	AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina Serie A

Fiorentina

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Manor Solomon Forward	15	0	0	–	78.4	–
Dodô Defender	90	0	0	0.06	70.7	+26.5
Nicolò Fagioli Midfielder	90	0	0	0.03	57.6	+2.1
Pietro Comuzzo Defender	90	1	0	0.20	53.0	−1.0
Albert Guðmundsson Forward	83	0	1	0.18	51.9	−3.3
Robin Gosens Defender	83	0	0	0.29	50.3	+1.1
Marin Pongračić Defender	90	0	0	0.05	49.2	−3.2
David De Gea Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	48.3	−0.1
Rolando Mandragora Midfielder	65	0	0	0.04	46.2	−4.4
Moise Kean Forward	90	0	0	0.11	45.0	−4.9
Cher Ndour Midfielder	89	0	0	0.17	41.0	−5.2
Fabiano Parisi Defender	83	0	0	0.07	38.1	−10.7
Marco Brescianini Midfielder	25	0	0	0.26	36.2	–
Simon Sohm Midfielder	1	0	0	–	36.1	–
Luca Ranieri Defender	15	0	0	0.03	29.6	–
Niccolò Fortini Defender	15	0	0	–	24.5	–

AC Milan

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Christopher Nkunku Forward	16	1	0	0.30	100.0	–
Davide Bartesaghi Midfielder	30	0	0	0.12	72.1	–
Christian Pulišić Forward	90	0	0	0.98	64.4	+2.9
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	63.3	+11.3
Samuele Ricci Midfielder	90	0	0	0.12	61.6	+11.5
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder	27	0	1	–	59.8	–
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder	90	0	0	–	56.0	+4.3
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder	30	0	0	0.08	51.0	–
Niclas Füllkrug Forward	60	0	0	–	48.2	−1.9
Strahinja Pavlović Defender	74	0	0	0.02	48.0	−6.2
Rafael Leão Forward	30	0	0	0.04	47.2	–
Ardon Jashari Midfielder	60	0	0	–	45.9	–
Pervis Estupiñán Midfielder	60	0	0	–	43.6	−5.3
Matteo Gabbia Defender	90	0	0	0.04	41.0	−11.3
Ruben Loftus-Cheek Midfielder	63	0	0	0.11	40.7	−8.9
Koni De Winter Defender	90	0	0	–	38.2	−13.5