Bundesliga 25/26 · 31 Jan 2026

Hamburger SV 2–2 FC Bayern München

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made FC Bayern München favourites at 60%.

A draw the chances agree with: 2.3 xG to 2.3.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Luis Díaz, 76.8 in 45′.

Well above their usual level: Luis Díaz +20.9, Fábio Vieira +17.0, William Mikelbrencis +15.9.

Well below it: Michael Olise −13.6, Kim Min-jae −11.8, Daniel Elfadli −9.7.

Each side's last five results before this match.

23 Jan 2026	D 0–0	at FC St. Pauli Bundesliga
17 Jan 2026	D 0–0	v Borussia M'gladbach Bundesliga
10 Jan 2026	L 1–2	at SC Freiburg Bundesliga
20 Dec 2025	D 1–1	v Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga
13 Dec 2025	L 1–4	at TSG Hoffenheim Bundesliga

28 Jan 2026	W 2–1	at PSV Eindhoven Champions League
24 Jan 2026	L 1–2	v FC Augsburg Bundesliga
21 Jan 2026	W 2–0	v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise Champions League
17 Jan 2026	W 5–1	at RB Leipzig Bundesliga
14 Jan 2026	W 3–1	at 1. FC Köln Bundesliga

13 Sep 2025	FC Bayern München 5–0 Hamburger SV Bundesliga

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Fábio Vieira Midfielder	85	1	0	1.33	66.4	+17.0
Nicolás Capaldo Defender	90	0	0	0.37	61.9	+14.7
Miro Muheim Midfielder	90	0	0	0.03	58.0	+3.6
William Mikelbrencis Midfielder	73	0	1	–	56.2	+15.9
Luka Vušković Defender	90	1	0	0.47	56.0	−4.0
Daniel Fernandes Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	54.1	+4.6
Albert Sambi Lokonga Midfielder	85	0	0	–	51.8	+2.7
Giorgi Gocholeishvili Defender	31	0	0	–	49.9	–
Nicolai Remberg Midfielder	90	0	0	–	47.3	−1.8
Rayan Philippe Forward	17	0	0	–	46.5	–
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer Forward	73	0	0	0.06	46.0	+1.9
Robert Glatzel Forward	16	0	0	–	43.1	–
Immanuel Pherai Midfielder	16	0	0	–	43.0	–
Bakery Jatta Midfielder	59	0	0	–	39.8	+1.6
Daniel Elfadli Defender	90	0	0	–	37.1	−9.7
Warmed Omari Defender	17	0	0	–	36.9	–

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Luis Díaz Midfielder	45	1	0	0.65	76.8	+20.9
Joshua Kimmich Midfielder	90	0	1	0.52	68.9	+3.0
Serge Gnabry Midfielder	65	0	0	0.03	66.7	+11.6
Harry Kane Forward	90	1	0	0.41	61.3	+4.5
Jonathan Tah Defender	25	0	0	0.28	57.7	–
Aleksandar Pavlović Midfielder	90	0	0	–	56.9	−2.3
Dayot Upamecano Defender	90	0	0	–	56.0	+0.7
Michael Olise Midfielder	90	0	1	0.10	54.1	−13.6
Josip Stanišić Defender	90	0	0	–	50.6	−6.1
Kim Min-jae Defender	65	0	0	–	47.3	−11.8
Jamal Musiala Midfielder	25	0	0	0.07	46.6	–
Lennart Karl Midfielder	45	0	0	0.30	45.6	−5.6
Alphonso Davies Defender	90	0	0	–	43.9	–
Manuel Neuer Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	39.7	−6.5