FA Cup 25/26, Round 3 · 11 Jan 2026

Derby County 1–3 Leeds United

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Footybot made Leeds United favourites at 59%.

Leeds United won and made the better chances: 2.7 xG to 0.5.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Joe Ward, 59.0 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Joe Ward +21.4, Bobby Clark +20.8, Wilfried Gnonto +10.8.

Well below it: Lukas Nmecha −10.2, Ilia Gruev −10.0.

Each side's last five results before this match.

4 Jan 2026	L 1–2	v Wrexham Championship
1 Jan 2026	W 1–0	v Middlesbrough Championship
29 Dec 2025	L 1–2	at Leicester City Championship
26 Dec 2025	D 1–1	at Birmingham City Championship
20 Dec 2025	D 1–1	v Portsmouth Championship

7 Jan 2026	L 3–4	at Newcastle United Premier League
4 Jan 2026	D 1–1	v Manchester United Premier League
1 Jan 2026	D 0–0	at Liverpool FC Premier League
28 Dec 2025	D 1–1	at Sunderland Premier League
20 Dec 2025	W 4–1	v Crystal Palace Premier League

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Player	Min	G	xG	Score	vs usual
Joe Ward Midfielder	90	0	–	59.0	+21.4
Danny Batth Defender	90	0	0.19	56.6	+9.6
Bobby Clark Midfielder	73	0	–	53.8	+20.8
Jacob Widell Zetterström Goalkeeper	90	0	–	52.1	+2.5
Owen Eames Midfielder	17	0	–	51.7	–
Rhian Brewster Forward	27	0	–	46.2	–
Ben Brereton Díaz Midfielder	90	1	0.14	45.1	+8.3
David Ozoh Midfielder	27	0	–	44.7	–
Patrick Agyemang Forward	17	0	–	42.3	–
Ebou Adams Midfielder	45	0	–	41.5	+1.3
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen Forward	73	0	0.03	41.0	−3.5
Lewis Travis Midfielder	63	0	–	39.2	+1.5
Oscar Fraulo Midfielder	45	0	–	39.2	–
Corey Blackett-Taylor Midfielder	63	0	0.19	38.9	–
Sondre Langås Defender	90	0	–	34.7	−3.0
Craig Forsyth Defender	90	0	–	30.1	−5.5

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Sam Byram Defender	8	0	0	–	77.7	–
Wilfried Gnonto Forward	86	1	0	0.13	58.7	+10.8
Ao Tanaka Midfielder	90	1	0	0.60	58.0	+10.7
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder	90	0	0	–	56.9	+8.1
Anton Stach Midfielder	1	0	0	–	55.4	–
James Justin Defender	45	1	0	0.27	53.4	+8.9
Brenden Aaronson Forward	1	0	0	–	52.1	–
Jaka Bijol Defender	90	0	1	–	51.6	−3.8
Sebastiaan Bornauw Defender	45	0	0	0.13	50.1	−0.8
Noah Okafor Forward	89	0	0	0.16	49.2	+1.3
Jack Harrison Forward	90	0	0	0.03	45.9	−2.1
Sean Longstaff Midfielder	17	0	0	–	45.6	–
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	44.9	−1.4
Joël Piroe Forward	89	0	0	1.10	42.8	+1.0
Ilia Gruev Midfielder	73	0	0	0.06	42.0	−10.0
Lukas Nmecha Forward	90	0	1	0.23	41.2	−10.2