Bundesliga 25/26 · 10 May 2026

1. FSV Mainz 05 1–3 1. FC Union Berlin

Picked for matchday: Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 17% · Chances everywhere: 4.3 xG · Standout: Tim Skarke scored 100.0 · Breakout watch: Kacper Potulski

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Apr 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 2.0 – 0.9
Actual xG: 1.5 – 2.8
Goals: 1 – 3

Footybot made 1. FSV Mainz 05 favourites at 61%.

1. FC Union Berlin won and made the better chances: 2.8 xG to 1.5.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Christopher Trimmel, 81.8 in 81′.

Well above their usual level: Christopher Trimmel +36.5, Aljoscha Kemlein +17.4, Oliver Burke +13.4.

Well below it: Dominik Kohr −11.6, Anthony Caci −11.6.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

1. FSV Mainz 05

3 May 2026	W 2–1	at FC St. Pauli Bundesliga
25 Apr 2026	L 3–4	v FC Bayern München Bundesliga
19 Apr 2026	D 1–1	at Borussia M'gladbach Bundesliga
16 Apr 2026	L 0–4	at RC Strasbourg Conference League
12 Apr 2026	L 0–1	v SC Freiburg Bundesliga

1. FC Union Berlin

2 May 2026	D 2–2	v 1. FC Köln Bundesliga
24 Apr 2026	L 1–3	at RB Leipzig Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026	L 1–2	v VfL Wolfsburg Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026	L 1–3	at 1. FC Heidenheim Bundesliga
5 Apr 2026	D 1–1	v FC St. Pauli Bundesliga

Head to head

10 Jan 2026	1. FC Union Berlin 2–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Nadiem Amiri Midfielder	90	0	0	–	57.8	−1.7
Sheraldo Becker Forward	81	1	0	0.45	56.1	+5.8
Nikolas Veratschnig Defender	20	0	0	–	55.3	–
Robin Zentner Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	54.1	+0.3
Anthony Caci Midfielder	70	0	0	0.04	49.3	−11.6
Stefan Posch Defender	90	0	0	0.06	48.6	−4.1
Kaishu Sano Midfielder	90	0	0	0.22	48.6	−1.4
Paul Nebel Midfielder	70	0	1	0.22	48.3	−1.7
Armindo Sieb Forward	9	0	0	0.09	47.4	–
Danny da Costa Defender	16	0	0	–	46.1	–
Kacper Potulski Defender	74	0	0	0.33	44.5	−3.6
Phillipp Mwene Midfielder	90	0	0	–	43.8	+1.4
Phillip Tietz Forward	81	0	0	–	42.7	−3.8
Jae-sung Lee Midfielder	20	0	0	–	41.0	–
Dominik Kohr Defender	90	0	0	0.06	34.4	−11.6
Nelson Weiper Forward	9	0	0	0.05	28.5	–

1. FC Union Berlin

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Josip Juranović Defender	9	1	0	0.53	100.0	–
Tim Skarke Midfielder	2	0	1	0.03	100.0	–
Christopher Trimmel Midfielder	81	0	0	–	81.8	+36.5
Andrej Ilić Forward	90	1	1	1.11	60.2	+13.1
Diogo Leite Defender	90	0	0	–	60.2	+12.1
Aljoscha Kemlein Midfielder	90	0	1	0.11	59.2	+17.4
Oliver Burke Forward	88	1	0	0.34	57.1	+13.4
Danilho Doekhi Defender	90	0	0	0.41	56.7	+5.3
Derrick Köhn Midfielder	30	0	0	–	56.6	–
Tom Alexander Rothe Defender	60	0	0	0.02	50.2	+3.2
Carl Klaus Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	49.6	–
Livan Burcu Forward	59	0	0	0.10	44.1	−1.6
Ilyas Ansah Forward	60	0	0	0.05	43.6	+5.7
András Schäfer Midfielder	30	0	0	0.06	41.3	–
Woo-Yeong Jeong Forward	31	0	0	–	39.6	–
Rani Khedira Midfielder	90	0	0	–	39.2	−0.3