FOOTYBOT
Matchday

UEFA Champions League 26/27 · 14 Oct 2026

AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Sep 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG
1.7 – 1.4
Actual xG
1.4 – 1.9
Goals
3 – 4

Footybot made AS Roma favourites at 44%.

Real Madrid won a close one on the chances: 1.9 xG to 1.4.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Matías Soulé, 69.5 in 63′.

Well above their usual level: Matías Soulé +14.9, Antonio Rüdiger +12.7, Wesley +10.7.

Well below it: Gianluca Mancini −18.8, Jude Bellingham −14.0, Thibaut Courtois −13.8.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

AS Roma

11 Oct 2026D 0–0at Como Serie A
19 Sep 2026D 2–2v Inter Serie A
14 Sep 2026W 2–0at Torino Serie A
10 Sep 2026D 1–1at Fenerbahçe Champions League
5 Sep 2026W 2–1v Atalanta Serie A

Real Madrid

10 Oct 2026W 1–0v Villarreal LaLiga
20 Sep 2026L 1–2at Atlético Madrid LaLiga
15 Sep 2026W 3–2at Elche LaLiga
12 Sep 2026W 4–1v Rayo Vallecano LaLiga
8 Sep 2026W 2–1v Inter Champions League

Head to head

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

AS Roma

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Matías Soulé Forward63020.0869.5+14.9
Donyell Malen Forward90200.7369.3+8.6
Manu Koné Midfielder1700–69.2–
Wesley Midfielder9000–60.4+10.7
Evan Ndicka Defender9000–58.6+4.9
Mario Hermoso Defender81000.2158.5+6.2
Paulo Dybala Forward45000.2154.7−5.7
Rodrigo Mora Midfielder45010.0754.3+3.0
Marten de Roon Midfielder90100.0554.1+8.4
Nahuel Molina Defender9000–52.5+6.0
Lorenzo Pellegrini Forward27000.0652.5–
Niccolò Pisilli Midfielder73000.0350.0+0.3
Leonardo Balerdi Defender2700–39.6–
Gianluca Mancini Defender6300–32.3−18.8
Pierluigi Gollini Goalkeeper9000–30.2–
Konstantinos Koulierakis Defender900–29.4–

Real Madrid

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Arda Güler Midfielder3102–100.0–
Carlos Espí Forward12100.89100.0–
Álvaro Carreras Defender1200–87.0–
Endrick Forward31100.1280.3–
Antonio Rüdiger Defender90100.2461.6+12.7
Yan Diomande Forward78010.0660.0+7.4
Ibrahima Konaté Defender9000–57.5+7.7
Kylian Mbappé Forward90100.1557.3−5.7
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder7000–52.6+1.7
Federico Valverde Midfielder90000.0552.2+1.7
Bernardo Silva Midfielder2000–51.2–
Jude Bellingham Midfielder90000.2950.3−14.0
Vinícius Júnior Forward5900–49.2−1.1
Marc Cucurella Defender78000.0848.3+0.4
Denzel Dumfries Midfielder5900–42.8−7.7
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper9000–37.5−13.8