FOOTYBOT
Matchday

LaLiga 25/26 · 4 Oct 2025

Real Madrid 3–1 Villarreal

Picked for matchday: Two strong sides · Chances everywhere: 4.5 xG · Standout: Vinícius Júnior scored 100.0 · Breakout watch: Rafa Marín

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Sep 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG
2.2 – 1.3
Actual xG
3.5 – 1.0
Goals
3 – 1

Footybot made Real Madrid favourites at 58%.

Real Madrid won and made the better chances: 3.5 xG to 1.0.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Vinícius Júnior, 100.0 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Vinícius Júnior +44.0, Georges Mikautadze +17.8, Franco Mastantuono +17.2.

Well below it: Arda Güler −17.4.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Real Madrid

30 Sep 2025W 5–0at FC Kairat Almaty Champions League
27 Sep 2025L 2–5at Atlético Madrid LaLiga
23 Sep 2025W 4–1at Levante UD LaLiga
20 Sep 2025W 2–0v Espanyol LaLiga
16 Sep 2025W 2–1v Olympique de Marseille Champions League

Villarreal

1 Oct 2025D 2–2v Juventus Champions League
27 Sep 2025W 1–0v Athletic Club LaLiga
23 Sep 2025W 2–1at Sevilla LaLiga
20 Sep 2025W 2–1v Osasuna LaLiga
16 Sep 2025L 0–1at Tottenham Hotspur Champions League

Head to head

No earlier meeting in Footybot's data.

Real Madrid

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Vinícius Júnior Forward90201.34100.0+44.0
Jude Bellingham Midfielder26000.5497.5–
Brahim Díaz Midfielder15010.0988.6–
Rodrygo Forward1100–76.1–
Franco Mastantuono Forward75000.4571.9+17.2
Kylian Mbappé Forward83110.3370.1−7.0
Federico Valverde Midfielder90000.0569.6+16.8
Dean Huijsen Defender90000.0665.8+8.9
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder90000.5158.4+6.1
Eduardo Camavinga Midfielder26000.0258.1–
Álvaro Carreras Defender9000–56.7+0.6
Dani Ceballos Midfielder6400–51.3−6.5
Arda Güler Midfielder64000.1150.4−17.4
Éder Militão Defender9000–47.7−7.2
Thibaut Courtois Goalkeeper9000–43.4−6.2

Villarreal

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Adrià Altimira Defender800–85.8–
Nicolas Pépé Forward45000.0369.5+2.1
Georges Mikautadze Forward45100.1365.4+17.8
Alfonso Pedraza Defender1700–56.5–
Rafa Marín Defender9000–56.2+4.5
Santiago Mouriño Defender7700–54.8−1.5
Santi Comesaña Midfielder8600–54.4+5.5
Tani Oluwaseyi Forward82000.6553.7+9.8
Pape Gueye Midfielder73010.0352.1−2.1
Thomas Partey Midfielder90000.0550.2+2.6
Sergi Cardona Defender9000–49.2−1.2
Alberto Moleiro Midfielder45000.1249.2−5.7
Tajon Buchanan Midfielder4500–48.9−2.6
Renato Veiga Defender9000–42.1−3.3
Arnau Tenas Goalkeeper9000–40.9–
Dani Parejo Midfielder800–39.3–