FA Cup 25/26, Round 3 · 11 Jan 2026

Manchester United 1–2 Brighton & Hove Albion

Picked for matchday: Two strong sides · Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 23% · Standout: Tom Watson scored 100.0 · Breakout watch: Diego Coppola

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Dec 2025; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 2.2 – 1.3
Actual xG: 1.8 – 1.3
Goals: 1 – 2

Footybot made Manchester United favourites at 56%.

Brighton & Hove Albion won a close one on the chances: 1.3 xG to 1.8.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Brajan Gruda, 87.3 in 89′.

Well above their usual level: Brajan Gruda +40.1, Kobbie Mainoo +26.6, Danny Welbeck +13.2.

Well below it: Mason Mount −13.0, Olivier Boscagli −12.5, Diego Gómez −11.9.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Manchester United

7 Jan 2026	D 2–2	at Burnley Premier League
4 Jan 2026	D 1–1	at Leeds United Premier League
30 Dec 2025	D 1–1	v Wolverhampton Premier League
26 Dec 2025	W 1–0	v Newcastle United Premier League
21 Dec 2025	L 1–2	at Aston Villa Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion

7 Jan 2026	D 1–1	at Manchester City Premier League
3 Jan 2026	W 2–0	v Burnley Premier League
30 Dec 2025	D 2–2	at West Ham United Premier League
27 Dec 2025	L 1–2	at Arsenal Premier League
20 Dec 2025	D 0–0	v Sunderland Premier League

Head to head

25 Oct 2025	Manchester United 4–2 Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League

Manchester United

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Casemiro Midfielder	11	0	0	–	100.0	–
Kobbie Mainoo Midfielder	62	0	0	–	66.9	+26.6
Bruno Fernandes Midfielder	90	0	1	0.12	66.3	−3.2
Benjamin Šeško Forward	90	1	0	0.53	54.1	+5.3
Lisandro Martínez Defender	79	0	0	0.15	51.6	−1.4
Leny Yoro Defender	90	0	0	–	49.8	+0.6
Patrick Dorgu Midfielder	90	0	0	0.24	49.3	−9.9
Joshua Zirkzee Forward	28	0	0	–	48.2	–
Manuel Ugarte Midfielder	79	0	0	–	48.0	−0.6
Matheus Cunha Forward	90	0	0	0.26	47.7	−9.3
Diogo Dalot Defender	90	0	0	0.25	47.4	−4.8
Harry Maguire Defender	11	0	0	0.03	44.1	–
Senne Lammens Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	38.5	−6.6
Mason Mount Midfielder	62	0	0	0.16	37.2	−13.0
Shea Lacey Midfielder	27	0	0	0.03	22.2	–

Brighton & Hove Albion

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Tom Watson Forward	1	0	0	–	100.0	–
Brajan Gruda Midfielder	89	1	1	0.51	87.3	+40.1
Jason Steele Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	67.5	+7.1
Danny Welbeck Forward	78	1	0	0.28	66.0	+13.2
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender	13	0	0	–	65.9	–
Pascal Groß Midfielder	90	0	0	–	52.5	−3.3
Diego Coppola Defender	90	0	0	–	51.3	−0.5
Ferdi Kadıoğlu Defender	90	0	0	0.05	51.3	+4.8
Joël Veltman Defender	77	0	0	0.12	48.2	−0.3
Georginio Rutter Midfielder	83	0	0	0.20	45.4	−1.7
Yasin Ayari Midfielder	13	0	0	–	43.7	–
Olivier Boscagli Defender	90	0	0	–	41.4	−12.5
Charalampos Kostoulas Forward	13	0	0	–	41.3	–
Jack Hinshelwood Midfielder	90	0	0	0.09	39.5	−4.5
Diego Gómez Midfielder	77	0	0	0.03	38.6	−11.9
Kaoru Mitoma Midfielder	12	0	0	–	28.2	–