Premier League 25/26 · 7 Feb 2026

Newcastle United 2–3 Brentford

Picked for matchday: Two strong sides · Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 21% · Chances everywhere: 4.2 xG · Standout: Dan Burn scored 91.3

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Jan 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG: 1.8 – 1.0
Actual xG: 2.2 – 1.9
Goals: 2 – 3

Footybot made Newcastle United favourites at 56%.

Brentford won a close one on the chances: 1.9 xG to 2.2.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Sven Botman, 77.0 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Dango Ouattara +26.2, Sven Botman +22.6, Igor Thiago +17.4.

Well below it: Jacob Murphy −15.1, Sepp van den Berg −12.8, Rico Henry −11.0.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Newcastle United

31 Jan 2026	L 1–4	at Liverpool FC Premier League
28 Jan 2026	D 1–1	at Paris Saint-Germain Champions League
25 Jan 2026	L 0–2	v Aston Villa Premier League
21 Jan 2026	W 3–0	v PSV Eindhoven Champions League
18 Jan 2026	D 0–0	at Wolverhampton Premier League

Brentford

1 Feb 2026	W 1–0	at Aston Villa Premier League
25 Jan 2026	L 0–2	v Nottingham Forest Premier League
17 Jan 2026	L 0–2	at Chelsea Premier League
7 Jan 2026	W 3–0	v Sunderland Premier League
4 Jan 2026	W 4–2	at Everton Premier League

Head to head

9 Nov 2025	Brentford 3–1 Newcastle United Premier League

Newcastle United

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Dan Burn Defender	13	0	0	–	91.3	–
Sven Botman Defender	90	1	0	0.29	77.0	+22.6
Anthony Elanga Forward	45	0	0	0.04	67.5	+14.4
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder	90	1	1	0.79	66.5	+6.4
Lewis Hall Defender	90	0	0	0.03	65.4	+6.2
Malick Thiaw Defender	90	0	0	0.19	65.2	+9.8
Kieran Trippier Defender	87	0	0	–	51.6	−7.6
Joe Willock Midfielder	45	0	0	–	51.2	−5.5
Nick Woltemade Forward	45	0	0	0.09	48.5	−1.7
Yoane Wissa Forward	65	0	0	0.32	45.3	−5.4
William Osula Forward	25	0	0	–	44.6	–
Sandro Tonali Midfielder	87	0	0	0.13	44.0	−7.2
Harvey Barnes Forward	90	0	0	0.34	43.8	−5.7
Jacob Murphy Midfielder	45	0	0	0.03	40.2	−15.1
Nick Pope Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	39.8	−8.7
Jacob Ramsey Midfielder	13	0	0	–	38.5	–

Brentford

Player	Min	G	A	xG	Score	vs usual
Dango Ouattara Midfielder	90	1	1	0.21	75.4	+26.2
Romelle Donovan Midfielder	10	0	0	0.02	74.1	–
Igor Thiago Forward	90	1	0	0.79	70.0	+17.4
Mikkel Damsgaard Midfielder	13	0	0	–	69.5	–
Vitaly Janelt Midfielder	90	1	0	0.18	63.5	+4.9
Mathias Jensen Midfielder	87	0	1	0.63	62.2	+5.8
Kristoffer Ajer Defender	90	0	0	–	60.1	+7.5
Michael Kayode Defender	90	0	0	–	49.8	−1.4
Sepp van den Berg Defender	90	0	0	–	47.0	−12.8
Yehor Yarmoliuk Midfielder	34	0	0	–	46.5	–
Jordan Henderson Midfielder	56	0	0	–	45.8	−6.0
Caoimhin Kelleher Goalkeeper	90	0	0	–	44.7	−10.1
Keane Lewis-Potter Defender	80	0	0	0.11	44.4	+0.3
Rico Henry Defender	90	0	0	–	34.8	−11.0