FOOTYBOT
Matchday

EFL Cup 25/26, Final · 22 Mar 2026

Arsenal 0–2 Manchester City

Picked for matchday: Two strong sides · Against the odds: the prediction gave this result 20% · Standout: Nico O'Reilly scored 98.1

Expected and what happened

Before the match, from team ratings for Feb 2026; the outlined result is what happened.

Expected xG
1.6 – 0.8
Actual xG
0.6 – 1.9
Goals
0 – 2

Footybot made Arsenal favourites at 54%.

Manchester City won and made the better chances: 1.9 xG to 0.6.

Best on the pitch by Footybot's score: Nico O'Reilly, 98.1 in 90′.

Well above their usual level: Nico O'Reilly +47.0, Matheus Nunes +21.9, Antoine Semenyo +19.0.

Well below it: Piero Hincapié −15.9, Kepa Arrizabalaga −15.4, Gabriel Magalhães −13.3.

Going in

Each side's last five results before this match.

Arsenal

17 Mar 2026W 2–0v Bayer 04 Leverkusen Champions League
14 Mar 2026W 2–0v Everton Premier League
11 Mar 2026D 1–1at Bayer 04 Leverkusen Champions League
7 Mar 2026W 2–1at Mansfield Town FA Cup
4 Mar 2026W 1–0at Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League

Manchester City

17 Mar 2026L 1–2v Real Madrid Champions League
14 Mar 2026D 1–1at West Ham United Premier League
11 Mar 2026L 0–3at Real Madrid Champions League
7 Mar 2026W 3–1at Newcastle United FA Cup
4 Mar 2026D 2–2v Nottingham Forest Premier League

Head to head

21 Sep 2025Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City Premier League

Arsenal

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Noni Madueke Forward2400–71.7–
Riccardo Calafiori Defender25000.0969.0–
Gabriel Jesus Forward8000.0357.4–
Declan Rice Midfielder9000–56.7−0.6
William Saliba Defender9000–55.0−0.0
Bukayo Saka Forward90000.1948.6−11.0
Leandro Trossard Forward82000.0546.2−3.2
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder9000–46.1−2.3
Gabriel Magalhães Defender9000–43.7−13.3
Kai Havertz Forward66000.2243.0−3.3
Ben White Defender8200–42.8−4.3
Viktor Gyökeres Forward9000–40.8−7.2
Piero Hincapié Defender65000.0336.5−15.9
Kepa Arrizabalaga Goalkeeper9000–36.4−15.4
Gabriel Martinelli Forward800–33.7–

Manchester City

PlayerMinGAxGScorevs usual
Nico O'Reilly Defender90200.9498.1+47.0
Jérémy Doku Midfielder90000.1181.4+13.7
Matheus Nunes Defender9001–74.5+21.9
Nathan Aké Defender90000.1067.8+17.3
Rayan Cherki Midfielder89000.1866.7+7.2
Antoine Semenyo Midfielder90000.0266.7+19.0
James Trafford Goalkeeper9000–60.8+11.4
Bernardo Silva Midfielder9000–58.9−2.7
Erling Haaland Forward90000.4954.5+2.1
Rodri Midfielder90000.0454.0−9.1
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender9000–53.3−4.7
Phil Foden Midfielder100–47.7–